A Visit to DSTL

From Engineering and Technology magazine.

Even better, the article was not illustrated with a picture of a game of RISK!

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/02/playing-wargames-to-help-shape-real-life-military-strategy

Playing wargames to shape real-life military strategy

Commercial wargames may be a crowd-pleaser for gaming enthusiasts, but what if these strategy-based tools could be used to support real-life military tactics? We speak to experts at the UK’s first dedicated wargaming centre who are setting this in motion.

Tucked away in a little town near Portsmouth, on the south coast of the UK, lies a facility. Here, those who serve our country are likely currently battling each other in games similar to those you may have come across in a store or in the comfort of your own home. Indeed, it may sound like a computer game, but they are so much more than that.

These are, in fact, wargames – a scenario-based warfare model in which the outcome and sequence of events affect, and are affected by, the decisions made by players, as described by the Ministry of Defence (MoD). It is a decision-making technique that provides structured but intellectually liberating safe-to-fail environments to help explore what works during warfare and what does not.

In fact, the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) has a long history of delivering these successful wargames on behalf of the MoD alongside other government departments. To take this one step further, Dstl has now opened the UK’s first dedicated wargaming centre.

The Defence Wargaming Centre (DWC), located on Dstl’s Portsdown West site near Portsmouth, was created to host wargames for all three UK services, responding to the increasing demand for wargaming as a tool both to support decisions and to develop insight into complex issues faced by defence and security.

Mike Larner, head of the DWC, says: “Wargaming enables commanders to anticipate and rehearse future conflicts which, ultimately, increases the UK’s capability to deter aggression and protect its interests.

“What’s quite different about this centre is that we’ve drawn together all of the people that are involved in wargames from different areas,” Larner adds, “so we now have a single team supporting wargames across all of the services, head office and all other departments at Dstl and the MoD.”

Currently, DWC covers around 600m2 with two large areas and one smaller open-plan area that can be subdivided further into smaller cells as required. Gaming tables, some of which have short-throw HD projectors to visualise wargame scenarios, reconfigure to the necessary shape and size. Dstl says that future upgrades are being planned to the physical space, computing, and communications, as well as further expansion to the wargaming teams and the range of tools available to them.

Beyond the wargames themselves, the centre intends to focus on research for wargaming methods, tools and techniques. “At the heart of a wargame there is some sort of simulation, and that can be anything from a board game or a map with characters being moved around,” says Larner, “or it could be a really sophisticated computer model that you’re putting all of this into and that is simulating a lot of the lower-level activities, and then it gives you results.”

In December 2019, the Royal Air Force (RAF) conducted the first wargaming exercise, Eagle Warrior 19, at the facility. The exercise was designed and developed by Dstl and involved staff from across the RAF and other services.

Lee Purslow, a wargame designer and analyst at DWC, describes the premise of the exercise: “Eagle Warrior 19 was a command and control wargame facilitated at DWC and attended by more than 40 RAF officers. The wargame used a hybridised combination of tools including digital modelling, maps and manual table-top games to evaluate the RAF’s response to various scenarios,” he explains. “Teams were split across seven cells and were assessed in their decision-making and timeliness of responses.” He delines to elaborate beyond that, saying the DWC cannot disclose any further details about the wargame for security reasons.

“One of the things about wargames is that it immerses people,” says analyst Marianne Shirley. “It’s quite an interesting way of considering and analysing problems.” So whether that is through the means of a manual table-top or a digital model, or perhaps a ‘hybrid’ of both, analysts and wargame designers discuss and cater to the requirements of their client to create the most suitable wargame for their needs.

“The customers come up with requirements; we will decide at that stage if it’s a simulation model or a manual table-top,” Purslow explains. “The biggest difference between the two is that simulation models tend to produce more quantitative information data as opposed to manual table-top games, which produce more qualitative information.”

According to the Dstl experts, commercial wargames offer a novel way of developing and testing combat strategy, taking inspiration from pre-existing wargames. Here, analysts spend time playing the games, analysing what makes them effective, looking at the mechanics of the game, and then taking the parts of the wargames that they feel are appropriate to a customer’s requirements.

“We look at the work of other people and draw from them,” Larner explains. “We are also very interested in how [boardgames] have been translated into video games.”

In July 2019, Dstl announced a partnership with Epsom-based video game developer Slitherine Software to explore the mechanics of a few of its own digital strategy-based games such as grand strategy game ‘Fields of Glory: Empires’ and variations of the digital version of ‘Warhammer 40,000’, initially a table-top wargame.

The team at DWC are positive about the wargaming centre, explaining that they aim to embed more technology into their facilities in the future.

They will also look to grow the team at the centre. DWC currently has around 35 full-time wargamers, who work with around 100 analysts across different divisions that specialise in coordinating different services and commands. “We’re planning to carry on growing from that,” Larner says.

Furthermore, DWC aspires to bring more technology into the centre, look for technology for improved data analysis, and to develop more mobile capabilities so that participants can conduct wargames remotely.

“Some of our wargames are actually about the technology and about viewing the ways that the armed forces use it. Then we have the technology for the wargames themselves and we’re looking into how we can use it better,” says Larner. “This area, in particular, is something that there’s a lot of interest in: how it might revolutionise defence. We’re certainly tracking that.”

Indeed, DWC is interested in using greater levels of technology to design a wargame and to even better visualise what is going on in a scenario-based model. By delivering a wide variety of wargames “it represents a significant step-up in capability and signals our intent to keep developing in response to growing MoD and wider government demand for wargaming,” Larner remarks, “which is, in turn, a response to the increasing complexity of conflict”.

CASE STUDY:

Shaping Afghan peace support operations

In 2011, Dstl deployed two teams of civilian volunteers to Afghanistan to support the headquarters of the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command (IJC) military planning teams. Dstl supported IJC, which was responsible for the combined Coalition and Afghan military campaign across the country, to shape future Nato operations at the time.

Two major planning conferences in March and November that year used Dstl’s computer simulation, the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM), a research-based decision-support tool for examining operations and outcomes in complex environments such as Afghanistan.

Originally designed to inform future UK strategic planning, PSOM was employed by the Dstl teams in Afghanistan in a bespoke analytical process. Indeed, this process simulated the planning, execution and assessment of real-world operations by giving senior military and civilian decision-makers clear direction and insights that influenced and shaped Nato operations in the region.

The activity

These conferences were the first of their kind to use a computer-based wargame to evaluate and refine campaign planning in Afghanistan. As part of the game, the PSOM computer system provided a novel analysis capability; these incorporated complex interactions between factors such as religious beliefs, ethnic identities, socio-economic conditions, geography and terrain, as well as political and military activity.

During the process, PSOM simulated military operations and civilian development activities by placing these complex factors in context. The models described the relationships between them and used the computer simulation to provide an objective structure to track cause-and-effect and generate insights for decision-makers. The process also used the subject-matter experts within the wargame to ensure their knowledge and expertise was reflected.

Within this process, military and civilian planners were able to assess the potential effects of different courses of action and test them against different challenges.

The variants

The wargame conferences were centred on semi-rigid, computer-assisted adjudication. Interactions during the month-long turns were first determined using PSOM, but then could be moderated or overruled by the adjudication team.

Each of these conferences involved around 20 control staff and 100-150 military and civilian players, with every cell represented: red, orange, green, blue, black and white, and brown for the civilian population. The blue, green and white players comprised strategic-, operational- and tactical-level planners, with support from external civilian agencies, embassies and elements from the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).

Thousands of entities were simulated, with military elements represented at a company level. Within PSOM, the civilian population was simulated as a set of discrete agents with decision-sets and information properties.

This was a closed game, with players collecting intelligence from various sources. Meanwhile, one central bird table and a network of computers provided shared situational awareness. The MoD described the wargame as “dynamic”, with an open-ended narrative driven by the player decisions and how they reacted to the consequences of these actions taken.

The outcome

“You have raised issues that a coalition and combined team, hundreds of thousands strong, have not thought all the way through to the finish,” IJC said in its summary of the 2011 Afghanistan planning conferences. “That early catch will save many lives as well as be critical to the success of the future campaign.”

Major General (then Brigadier) Gary Deakin, representing the British Army, said in 2014: “The use of the wargaming tool PSOM enabled commanders and their planning staffs to objectively visualise the likely outcomes of the transition campaign for Afghanistan.

“Almost three years on, and having been involved directly or indirectly in Afghanistan since, I have frequently observed events and trends which were identified as key risks to the plan in the wargaming,” he continued. “This is the most effective tool for wargaming at the higher levels I have experienced.”

New book: Successful Professional Wargames by Graham Longley-Brown

glbcover

Graham Longley-Brown served in the British Army as a Regular officer from 1986 to 2003, and finished off his career as the UK Joint Services Command and Staff College Directing Staff Subject Matter Expert for wargaming from 2000-2002. Since his retirement from the Regular Army, Graham has worked as a self-employed consultant (www.lbsconsultancy.co.uk) running wargames for national militaries and their research centres across the world. Graham also developed the Rapid Campaign Analysis Toolset in use by the British military, helped to write the UK MOD Wargaming Handbook, and co-founded and organizes the Connections-UK conference on professional wargaming. (www.professionalwargaming.co.uk)

I’ve known Graham since I first became involved with Connections-UK, at the first conference in 2013. Now he has written a book, Successful Professional Wargames: A Practitioner’s Handbook wherein he promises to reveal all his secrets.

He’s obviously doing something right!

Published by John Curry’s History of Wargaming project, you can buy your copy here: http://www.wargaming.co/professional/details/professionalhandbook.htm

 

Getting the Story…

P1110519a

…Right on Wargaming.

A very good piece by Ed McGrady, a long-time colleague of Peter Perla’s at the Centre for Naval Analysis.

Narrative, narrative all is narrative because we are working with humans who respond to stories.

https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/getting-the-story-right-about-wargaming

On Wargaming by Matt Caffrey, out at last!

 

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/newport-papers/43/

At long last On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey’s book on the history and uses of wargaming is out and freely available as a PDF at the above link. Released through the Naval War College. You can also obtain a hard copy version through US government printing offices but I am told that there is a quite small print run.

Here is the list of chapter headings. You can see it’s a comprehensive history of the practice, and you will find it’s quite well written and researched. Matt Caffrey, who created and has been running the annual Connections conference on professional wargaming for over 25 years, has been working on this for a very long time, and it shows up well as a labour of love, devotion and hope.

Go, get your copy!

PART ONE: THE HISTORY OF WARGAMING

The Rise of Modern Wargaming: Prehistory to 1913

Wargaming and the World Wars: 1905–1945

Wargaming in the Cold War: 1946–1989/1991

Wargaming after the Cold War: 1990s–10 September 2001

Post-9/11 Wargaming: 2001–2011 

Wargaming in Transition: 2012–2016 and Beyond

PART TWO: TOWARD MORE EFFECTIVE WARGAMING

The Taxonomy of Wargaming 

The Utility of Wargaming

Wargame Participation

Wargame Practitioners

Leaders and Wargaming

Wargaming and Your Personal Objectives

Conclusions: Toward Peace Gaming

CFP: Connections-USA 2019

This is reposted from an email received by Tim Wilkie, a Great Guy who is organizing the Connections-USA conference.

I’ve posted many times on this blog about how interesting and valuable these conferences are, at least to me. You should consider attending, if you have any interest in how government (primarily the military, but the lessons are often widely applicable) uses wargaming.

/ / / / /

Connections 2019 will be hosted by the U.S. Army War College at the Army Heritage and Education Center in Carlisle, PA, August 13-16.

Connections is an interdisciplinary* wargaming conference that has been held annually since 1993, with the mission of advancing and preserving the art, science, and application of wargaming.  Connections participants come from all elements of the wargaming discipline, and include those in the military, government, academic, private sector, and commercial hobbyist fields.  By providing a forum for practitioners to share insights and best practices, Connections works to improve gaming as a tool for research, analysis, education, and policy.

Presentations on any aspect of professional wargaming are welcome.  The 2019 conference theme is Futures of Wargaming, and with that in mind, presentations on wargaming future events, advances in wargaming techniques, wargaming to train future leaders, and related topics are especially encouraged.

Please submit your proposal via the Google Form at the following link (which contains additional information):
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeyDQazE8CCsGmzjKorpEdaB1eQF9ijsKOdnYwMC5JnL8-uOg/viewform?usp=sf_link

It is by no means necessary to have attended a previous Connections conference to participate as a speaker.  More information about past Connections events and current updates on the status of planning for Connections 2019 can be found at the conference website:
https://connections-wargaming.com/

Feel free to pass this along to those who you think might be interested, including posting this in appropriate places online.  For additional information or any questions or concerns, please contact me at timothy.wilkie@ndu.edu

Timothy Wilkie
Research Fellow
Center for Applied Strategic Learning (CASL)
National Defense University
timothy.wilkie@ndu.edu
(202)433-4865

/ / / / /
*[best thing I read on the Net yesterday, from “S**t Academics Say”: “We’re all two drinks away from becoming interdisciplinary.”]

Colonial Twilight in Warsaw!

A Distant Plain in Warsaw!

Last year Piotr Bambot, a teacher who uses games in his classrooms and sometimes engages with members of the Polish military for their professional development, reported on his use of A Distant Plain with a group of officers and senior NCOs from the three main services.

Recently he did much the same thing with a similar group, using Colonial Twilight. He ran three games at the same time, each game was played with teams of five or six.

Bambot4821

Piotr gives initial instruction. Apparently the head-grabbing went away after a while.

Piotr said that many of the participants, some of whom had had several Afghanistan tours, appreciated the mechanics used to mimic insurgent actions. That’s always good to hear.

 

Thanks so much Piotr, and I am glad to hear that they found the games useful!

BambotRangi

Piotr thoughtfully provided a photo listing the ranks of the players, so you can get an idea of the the intended audience.

An early example of an urban COIN megagame

pentagonurbancoincover

Very new from the History of Wargaming Project by John Curry, is a book reprinting rules for making up and playing a multi-player game on urban counterinsurgency, along with analysis of many urban insurgency incidents… including the Battle of Algiers, which was still quite recent as the original documents are from 1966.

Unless I miss my guess, this is “URB-INS”, contained in the “Report on Urban Insurgency Studies”, done in 1966 by Simulmatics Corporation. I remember examining a copy of this in the US Army War College’s library briefly (Back, then forth); I found it by chance there, but I wasn’t going to pass up a look at such an early example of a manual game on counterinsurgency in a generic city. I recall it was pretty sophisticated for its day – double-blind play with an umpire using a third board; time lag on intelligence and movements; uncertain information on sympathizers for either side; interrogation and arrest; etc..

Buy your copy at:

http://www.wargaming.co/professional/details/pentagonurbancoin.htm

EDIT: I was wrong! Turns out the game in question is URB-COIN, developed by Abt Associates in 1966. It is related to two other games Abt did for the US military, AGILE-COIN and POLITICA. Faithful Readuhs may recall my mention of AGILE-COIN as an early attempt to model rural insurgency in a couple of my presentations, and the game is described in greater detail in Andrew Wilson’s very good book The Bomb and The Computer (also available from John Curry as a reprint).

http://www.wargaming.co/professional/details/awthebomb.htm

Clark Abt did very well for himself and the world of simulations and games, as he was one of the first major designers and promoters of “serious games”. He designed dozens of games on a very wide variety of topics, most of them educational and policy games though he had quite a few DARPA contracts too. He is still alive and his company, Abt Associates, is doing very well (and seemingly not doing work for the military any more, at least not overtly). You can see part of his “Serious Games”, a major work, here:

https://books.google.ca/books?id=axUs9HA-hF8C&printsec=frontcover&dq=inauthor:%22Clark+C.+Abt%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj238Tq8b_cAhWCJ3wKHf0GD0kQ6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q&f=false